As the numbers of the population in Portugal have been revised upwards, the retirement age can also change – why? In statements to the Minutes, the president of the Order of Economists – Norte, Carlos Brito, clarified everything that is at stake.
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A retirement age in Portugal for the coming years may be reviewedSince, after all, there are more people living in Portugal than they thought. In declarations toNews to Minutes, the President of the Order of Economists – North, Carlos Brito, clarified that we are “before a statistical review of reality” and explains what is at stake.
” The calculations of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) were somehow outdated by methodological issues. Until recently, the NSI was based mainly on censuses, the last of which occurred in 2021. The figures now released do not mean that the Portuguese population has increased overnight. What changed was how to measure it“, clarified.
There’s more population: What happened?
Carlos Brito explained that what happened was that, “with the very rapid growth of immigration in recent years, the methodology that was being used proved to be unable to accurately capture the size of the population.“.
“The INE then went on to use a database that crosses millions of records of Social Security, Tax Authority, AIMA, Education, among other entities, which allowed us to identify a significantly larger number of residents,” he said.
In your opinion, “the high population review is in itself good news, especially if it results from an increase in the population of active age.“because “more workers mean more contributors to social security, which reinforces the financial sustainability of the pension system“.
On the other hand, it stresses that this review has implications that go far beyond pensions: “Influences demographic projections, the calculation of indicators such as GDP per capita and the planning of public policies in the areas of health, education, housing and transport.”
What will be the impact on retirement age?
The President of the Order of Economists – North told the News to Minutes that, “in rigor, it is not the increase in the population alone that changes the retirement age” and explained: “What determines the normal age of access to pension is life expectancy at 65 years calculated by the INE. If the statistical review of the population leads to a review of the mortality tables and, consequently, life expectancy, then there may be an impact“.
” Otherwise, a larger population alone does not imply any change in the retirement age. So, since, in 2026, the retirement age is 66 years and 9 months, rising in 2027 to 66 years and 11 months, this means that life expectancy at 65 years will increase about 2 months next year“, calculates the economist.
It also means that, “if the methodological review translates into a life expectancy at 65 years of age, the retirement age will tend to increase“but,”If the future results in a lower life expectancy, the retirement age may decrease“.
“It was, by the way, what happened during the Covid-19 pandemic. Everything will depend on the net effect of the review on this demographic indicator. What is important is that the relationship is not direct between ‘more population’ and ‘more retirement age’, But between life expectancy and legal retirement age“, fulfilled Carlos Brito.
Ultimately, the economist said, “the real challenge of Portugal is not only to decide what the age of retirement should be, but ensuring the sustainability of the pension system in an increasingly ageing country“where the “age of reform is only one of the variables of this balance.”