The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects global growth to be 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with the opposite effects of war and technological shock, according to the updated forecasts released today.
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A estimate for 2026 is a low review of 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) compared to the april forecast, while the projection for 2027 was revised upwards at 0.2 p.p.
This projection represents a reduction from the average of 3.5% observed in the period 2024-2025, and practically unchanged in cumulative terms compared to the forecasts of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report of April 2026.
This moderate deceleration “reflects the effects of war in the Middle East, which is partially offset by accelerated momentum, driven by demand in the global technology cycle, thanks to advances in artificial intelligence (IA) and its adoption”, reads the report.
The impact between countries is varied, depending on the exposure to war and its position in the value chain of technology, and “exporters of energy located outside the conflict zone benefit from favourable terms of exchange, while economies integrated in technology-driven expansion have a greater dynamism, even though they are energy-importers”.
Moreover, economic activity weakens for energy importers with limited participation in the value chain of technology.
As for global inflation, the forecast is from an acceleration of 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before falling to 3.9% in 2027, resulting in a slight upward revision of April estimates.
According to the IMF, global economic activity and prospects for the future are being shaped by “two major forces operating in opposite directions, with asymmetric effects among countries”.
On the one hand, there is the negative supply shock caused by the war in the Middle East, while on the other there is a “positive technological shock in progress, which is manifested in the acceleration of the global technological cycle, driven largely by advances and the implementation of AI tools”.