DBRS will evaluate Portuguese sovereign debt this Friday for the third and last time this year, and analysts anticipate that the most likely scenario is the maintenance of “rating”, even if the rise is a possibility.
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12/11/2026
by
Lusa
A DBRS will evaluate Portuguese sovereign debt this Friday for the third and last time this year, and analysts anticipate that the most likely scenario is the maintenance of ‘rating’, even if the rise is a possibility.
According to Banco Carregosa’s Investment Director, Filipe Silva, the next assessment of DBRS “comes in a favorable context and an increase in Portugal’s rating is a real possibility”, after in May deciding to keep the rating in ‘A’ (high), while the outlook improved from stable to positive.
However, the analyst warned Lusa that geopolitical uncertainty, risks to European growth and the need to maintain budgetary discipline should lead the agency to take a prudent stance while maintaining its current rating.
The classification that DBRS assigns to Portugal “shows recognition of the improvement of public finances and the sustained reduction of public debt”, he noted.
In addition, there are “solid arguments for a rise: the consecutive budgetary surpluses, the resilience of the Portuguese economy and the improvement of debt sustainability indicators”, also bearing in mind that the recent high revisions of Fitch and Scope reinforce the international recognition of the evolution of the country’s credit profile.
João Cruz, market analyst at Xtb, also believes that the most likely scenario for this Friday is the maintenance of rating in “A (high)” and the positive trend.
“DBRS itself gave a clue last Monday by including Portugal on the list of European countries entering 2027 with a positive trend. This suggests that the agency still does not consider the time to raise the grade, preferring to wait some more time to confirm that the debt decline is lasting”, said Xtb.
According to the analyst, there are some factors that advise prudence, namely inflation, especially because of energy prices, rising cost with debt interest next year and the approval of the State Budget for 2027, which although already approved in general, will only have the final vote on 24 November.
The Minister of Finance had indicated at a hearing in the State Budget last week that DBRS could make some change taking into account the positive outlook.
Next week, on November 20th, it is Moody’s turn to assess the Portuguese debt, which will be the last revision by financial rating agencies this year.