Renewable energy and conflict in Iran decrease CO2 emissions

Aglobal emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuels are expected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, driven by renewable energy and the conflict in Iran, according to a report released today.

The Global Carbon Budget report nevertheless warns that 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2 should be issued this year.

The study points out that although global energy demand continues to grow, two thirds of the increase is being supplied thanks to the expansion of solar and wind power, as well as the adoption of electric vehicles.

However, the report maintains that the growth of clean energy is not “quick enough” to achieve a “lasting reduction” of CO2 from fossil fuels.

“ Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions,” said researcher Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia in the UK in a press release. “A greater acceleration can change the direction of global emissions in a few years,” he added.

The report also indicates that oil-related carbon emissions will fall 1.9%, probably as a “short-term” response to the energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran.

Although the fall is encouraging, Global Carbon Budget director Pierre Friedlingstein points out in a statement that “a reduction driven partly by geopolitical crises is not a sustainable climate solution.”.

The study also provides for emissions resulting from land use changes, such as deforestation, to grow from 42.8 billion tonnes by 2025 to 43.3 billion this year (an increase of 1.2%).

Based on this data, the more than 140 international scientists who draw up the report conclude that the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before the increase in global warming reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius is 150 billion tonnes: “less than four years of emissions at the current rate”.

Therefore, it is necessary to “enlarge CO2 removal to achieve neutrality in greenhouse gases,” says Professor Julia Pongratz of Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich (Germany) in a press release.

“Afforestation and reforestation already remove substantial amounts of CO2, but these advances end up being more than offset by emissions from deforestation. In addition, new carbon removal techniques are still very limited. We need to act on all these fronts right now”, he explained.

Among the conclusions, the Global Carbon Budget highlights that China, responsible for 32% of CO2 from fossil fuels, is the “most active” country in the implementation of clean energy and carbon sinks.

“ Half of the global emissions avoided thanks to renewable energy and electric vehicles are concentrated in China, which also has the highest carbon absorption through reforestation and afforestation,” says the report.

The document, which foresees a 0.9% drop in China’s emissions in 2026, while electricity generation from renewable sources “continues to grow in force”, also draws attention to coal-related emissions, which have an increase of 0.3%.

On the opposite side of the balance is India, whose emissions are expected to rise by 4.4%, a percentage “above the average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the last decade”. The European Union (-1.5%), the United States (-1.3%) and Japan (-1%) will maintain a decreasing trend.

For the rest of the planet, the Global Carbon Budget predicts a 0.7% reduction in 2026, probably due to rising oil prices and global supply restrictions.