Chinese surplus exceeds 890 billion for the second consecutive year

O china's trade surplus has already exceeded a billion dollars (EUR 890 billion) for the second consecutive year, according to official figures released today, at a time when international pressure on Beijing increases to correct trade imbalances.

Chinese exports increased by 35.2% in October compared to the same month of 2025, according to the General Customs Administration. Sales abroad have increased rapidly this year, driven by high-tech products, including semiconductors and automobiles.

Imports increased by 41.6% in homologous terms in October.

Between January and October, China recorded a trade surplus of USD 1.04 billion (EUR 930 billion), although the positive balance decreased in the last month to USD 105.3 billion (EUR 93.7 billion), compared to the USD 133.5 billion (118.8 billion) recorded in September due to the acceleration of imports.

These results put China in the way of exceeding the record trade surplus of 1.2 billion dollars (EUR 1.07 billion) recorded in 2025.

“ We predict that Chinese exports will remain strong for the rest of the year, driven by electronic products and automobiles,” said Dave Chia, economist at Moody’s Analytics, an American economic and financial analysis company.

Overcapacity in various sectors, high internal savings and the weakness of domestic demand continue to force China to drain its products abroad, at a time when some countries seek to protect their industries, said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region of the French bank Natixis.

The economist considered that the situation is not sustainable.

Companies are feeling the pressure of fierce competition as the Chinese economy slows down, said Cinders Zhou, who sells glasses to a manufacturer in the city of Linhai, Zhejiang province, in eastern China.

“ It all comes down to the quality of the products, or rather to the growing lack of quality throughout the sector, as there is a significant homogenization,” Zhou said, whose company manufactures frames and lenses sold both on the Chinese market and abroad.

“This forced everyone to compete for the price,” he added.

The trade restrictions imposed by the European Union pose an important risk at a time when the United States maintains high trade barriers and tariffs, Chia considered.

The main Chinese leaders insist that Beijing does not seek to increase the trade surplus, but wants a more balanced world trade.

Chinese exports may also be vulnerable to a slowdown in the artificial intelligence industry (IA), a concern that has intensified after the Democratic Party's victories in the US mid-term elections, in view of the growing public challenge to the expansion of data centres.

“If the growth of the AI slows down or leads to a correction, the decline in semiconductor and electronic prices, together with the reduction in export volumes, will strongly affect Chinese exports,” Chia said.

Trade should be one of the main themes of the meetings between President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which will take place later this month in Shenzhen, one of China's leading technological centres.

The two-month extension of the trade truce, until January, provided some relief to exporters, although it remains uncertain how long it may last.

The trade policies of the United States and Europe have created “many difficulties” to the expansion of Chinese companies in those markets, said Wang Xin, responsible for the Shenzhen Transboundary Electronic Trade Association, a sector organization.

The strong performance of exports helped compensate for the weakness of domestic demand in China, whose economy is expected to reach the official annual growth target of 4.5% to 5% set by Beijing for this year, slightly below the 5% expansion in 2025.