Brazil reviews grain harvest forecast in 1 million tons

O Brazilian government today revised the forecast for grain production in 2026/2027, removing one million tons from the previous estimate, in a scenario of concern with the effects of climatic conditions on crops.

In the second survey of the planned harvest, the National Supply Company (Conab) estimates that Brazil is expected to produce 366.1 million tons of grain, against the 367.1 million expected in October, a reduction of 0.3%.

Despite the low review, the new estimate represents a growth of 1.3%, equivalent to 4.6 million tonnes, compared to the production of the season 2025/2026.

Conab attributes some of the concerns about the productive potential of crops to the irregularity of rains, high temperatures and the effects of the phenomenon El Niño, which has influenced weather conditions at the beginning of the agricultural cycle.

According to the entity's report, the climate conditions recorded in October showed significant differences between the Brazilian regions, with rainfall above 150 mm in the South and in areas of the Central-South of the Midwest and Southeast.

On the other hand, most of the North and Northeast regions had precipitations less than 120 millimeters, with areas in the northeast of the North and mid-northeast to accumulate less than 40 millimeters, reducing the availability of water in the soil.

In the South, despite the high volumes of rain, excess water and low luminosity caused specific damage to crops, reduced plant growth and required the replanting of corn from the first crop in some locations.

Conab also warns of the persistence of El Niño, with temperatures of the surface of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean above average and possibility of maintaining the phenomenon with very strong intensity until the end of 2026.

For the quarter between November of this year and January of 2027, the forecast of the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) points to rains below the average in the North region and in most of the Northeast and Southeast regions.

Average national productivity is expected to fall by 1% to 4,290 kilograms per hectare, while the area for cultivation is expected to increase by 2.3% to 85.3 million hectares, an incorporation of 1.9 million hectares compared to the previous season.

Among the main crops, soybeans should continue to lead Brazilian production, with a forecast of 181.6 million tonnes, in an area estimated at 49.3 million hectares.

Conab also provides for a production of 148 million tonnes of maize, considering the three cereal harvests, although the average productivity should be 2.3% below that recorded in the previous cycle.

Rice production is estimated at 10.6 million tonnes, a 4.7% reduction compared to the previous harvest, while bean harvest is expected to reach 2.9 million tonnes, minus 1.8%.

Wheat, in turn, should have a fall of 33.2%, with an estimated production of 5.3 million tons, a result mainly associated with the reduction of the cultivated area and unfavorable climatic behavior, especially in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.

Conab notes that the projections can still be reviewed, as they depend on different factors, including market and climate behavior.