Flavio and Lula concentrate efforts in the three richest and most populous states

Os three states, located in the southeast region, concentrate, alone, almost 43% of the brazilian electorate, according to brazilian electoral justice data.

Voting intent polls point to an uncertain scenario in a possible second round, scheduled for October 25, with Lula da Silva, who seeks re-election, and Flávio Bolsonaro in statistical tie, leading the two campaigns to dispute the useful vote and the undecided voters.

“The Southeast is superlative in any presidential election. We are talking about more than 63 million voters”, said political scientist Alexandre Bandeira, chief analyst of the Brasilia Group of Political Consulting.

Brazil has 158.7 million voters able to vote in the general elections on Sunday, about 74% of the Brazilian population, currently estimated at 213.42 million inhabitants, according to data from the Superior Electoral Court.

São Paulo has 34.1 million voters, Minas Gerais 16.4 million and Rio de Janeiro 12.9 million.

“Any relevant difference in performance in these three states can represent millions of votes in the total accounting of votes in Brazil,” said Bandeira.

“What draws attention in this final line is that there is no clear hegemony in these three major electoral markets among the main candidates,” said the analyst, adding that the polls put Flavio numerically ahead of Lula in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

“Minas Gerais presents a much more balanced dispute. And Minas deserves special attention because historically it functions as a kind of loyal balance of the presidential election. Since 1989, who won the election in Minas also won the Presidency of the Republic,” he said.

“ In a polarized election, there is no feeling of ‘herd effect’, where undecided cast their votes in bulk on those who will win,” he said, stressing that candidates seek to convince the undecided in the final line.

“By favouring the Southeast region, the two main candidates want to convince, on a scale, the margin of indecisives that can numerically print a victory for one or the other,” he added.

“Do this in the Region Southeast makes more sense than in smaller electoral reducts, because the conviction occurs in percentages that, when translated numerically into votes, have greater impact of change in this final straight ", he said.

Both Lula's Workers' Party (PT), and Flávio's Liberal Party (PL), also use the image and influence of candidates to support the candidacy of state governments and the Senate.

In this year's general elections, Brazilians will choose two thirds of the 81 Senate seats, while the House of Representatives is composed of 513 deputies.

Because of the largest populations, the three states in the Southeast also elect the largest number of federal deputies, with São Paulo electing 70, Minas Gerais 53 and Rio de Janeiro 46.

For São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro reserved three days of campaign, where the current governor has his support and, according to the polls, has the potential to win already in the first round, and thus defeat the name supported by Lula.

In the other days, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro will be in his state of origin, Rio de Janeiro, on Thursday, and Minas Gerais, on Friday.

Lula began the week in three capitals of the North and Northeast Brazil, but, from Wednesday, he will concentrate the agendas in the Southeast, passing through Minas Gerais twice (fourth and Friday), Rio de Janeiro (fifth) and São Paulo (saturday).

Next Sunday, Flávio Bolsonaro votes in Rio de Janeiro, but has not yet defined where he will follow the vote count and can stay in Brasilia or São Paulo.

Lula da Silva votes in São Paulo, his political cradle, and will stay in the region to follow the election results.