The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides that Portugal will record a zero budget balance this year and also next year, according to the institution's database. IMF forecasts are made under World Economic Outlook, where economic growth is also estimated at 2.1% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.
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14/10/2026
by
Lusa
O International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides that Portugal will record a zero budget balance this year and also next year, according to the institution's database.
The IMF released World Economic Outlook this Tuesday, where it estimated a growth of the Portuguese economy of 2.1% this year and 1.9% next.
Budget forecasts are usually more detailed in Fiscal Monitor, published today, but this time the institution has decided not to include the short-term chapter, so only estimates are available in the IMF database.
According to this database, the IMF projects a budget balance of 0.0% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year and the next year, keeping the estimates disclosed in June in the report on the Article IV mission unchanged.
For the following years, the institution anticipates a return to deficits of 0.3% of GDP in 2028, 0.6% in 2029, 0.9% in 2030 and 1.3% in 2031.
On the other hand, the government also provides for a zero balance this year, according to the proposed 2027 state budget delivered last week in parliament, while for 2027 it points to a surplus of 0.1% of GDP.
As for the other institutions following the Portuguese economy, the OECD also anticipates a zero balance this year, while the Public Finance Council (CFP) believes a surplus of 0.2%, Brussels foresees a deficit of 0.1% and the BdP of 0.2%.
For 2027, with the exception of the IMF, everyone anticipates a deficit: the OECD of 0.1%, the CFP of 0.2%, Brussels of 0.4% and the BdP of 0.5%.
It should be noted that the latest official BdP forecasts for the budget balance are from June, but the governor has already indicated that he believes it is possible to achieve a surplus next year.