OE2027: Social security will have a surplus of 8,382.7 million

O Government estimates that the social security surplus will reach €8,382.7 million next year, according to the report accompanying the proposed State Budget for 2027 (OE2027).

This is the figure estimated by the government from the perspective of public accounting (which takes into account cash inflows and outflows) and represents an increase of 8% from the implementation forecast for this year (EUR 7,762.9 million).

It is still above the amount that had been budgeted for this year (EUR 6,438.5 million).

The forecast of the total effective income of Social Security for the coming year is EUR 53,151.4 million, an increase from the EUR 49,795.2 million planned to be implemented in 2026, as well as the budget for this year (EUR 49,358.7 million).

“This result is mainly influenced by the increase in contributions of EUR 2,534,9 million and transfers from the State Budget and other central government entities by EUR 956,4 million, and by the reduction in transfers of European Union funds by EUR 41.9 million,” the report notes.

Also in the revenue plan, the government expects contributions and contributions revenue to increase by 7.8% next year, reaching EUR 34,895.9 million.

“ To this growth contributes the expectation of a favourable macroeconomic framework, which translates into an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment by 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively, and an increase in wages per employee by 4.5%”, it is said.

As far as the forecast of total actual expenditure is concerned, the government expects it to reach EUR 44,768.7 million in 2027, an increase from the 42,032.3 million expected to be implemented in 2026 and also from the budgeted (42,920.2 million).

“In the whole of the actual expenditure, pension and supplement expenditure stands out, which is expected to reach, in 2027, the value of EUR 26.429,8 million (excluding pensions from the banking substitute scheme), representing about 59% of the total actual expenditure,” the document says.

As far as expenditure on unemployment benefit and employment support is concerned, the government expects expenditure of EUR 1,619.1 million in 2027, an increase of 2% compared to that of implementation for this year (EUR 1,587,3 million).

The government also estimates to spend EUR 734.3 million in 2027 on the creation of a single social benefit (SSP), an increase of 10.1% compared to the implementation forecast in 2026 (EUR 667.1 million).

“ This increase is essentially justified by the setting of the reference value in 50% of the indexing of social support and the incentive component to work”, he argues.

With regard to the Social Security Financial Stabilisation Fund (FEFSS), the executive points out that the value of the asset portfolio at the end of 2027 “is estimated at around 17.2% of GDP (EUR 58.5 billion) and 261.4% of annual pension expenditure”.