Opta platform places Sporting and FC Porto on the clearance route for the Champions League playoff, even though the lions are missing six points won in six possible and the dragons remain ‘zero’.
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15/10/2026
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A the second round of the league phase of the Champions League ended with another victory of Sporting (about Lens, in the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, by 0-2) and another defeat of FC Porto (before Real Betis, in the Stadium of La Cartuja, by 3-2), which means that the two Portuguese representatives live radically different scenarios.
The lions are part of the lot of nine leaders, with six points won in six possible (together with Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, Aston Villa, Stuttgart, Liverpool, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Real Betis), while the dragons live at the bottom of the table, the ‘zeros’ (such as Internazionale, Slavia Prague, Napoli, LASK Linz, Lille, Galatasaray and Slovan Bratislava).
Still, there's no reason to panic or euphoria. This is because the latest predictions made by Opta's supercomputer, a company specialized in the processing of sports data, point out that both eternal rivals will end this phase in a playoff area.
In the case of the green and white emblem, the expectation is that it will be ninth grade, with between 14 and 15 points. For blues and whites, the algorithm estimates that the scenario is not as serious as it seems, as it will be possible to add nine to ten points, which would leave them in the 22nd position of the table, at the end of the eight rounds.
Confirming, in the next phase, Rui Borges' men would dispute access to the eighths of the finals with Shakhtar Donetsk or Feyenoord, who are appointed to 23rd and 24th places, respectively. Francesco Farioli, for his part, would have the front Royal Betis (again) or Atlético de Madrid, 11th and 12th ranked, respectively.
How far can Sporting and FC Porto reach?
Opta's algorithm concludes that Sporting currently has 51.93% chance of reaching the playoffs of what is the largest European football club competition. The eighths of the final have 46.08% chances, the ‘quarters’ 36.44%, the ‘halfs’ 14.34% and the final 4.81%, so it can be said that the scenario is encouraging.
FC Porto, for its part, does not have so many reasons to smile, since the probability of reaching the playoffs is 56.75%, the ‘eighties’ of 4.13%, the ‘quarters’ of 12.99%, the ‘halfs’ of 5.30% and the end of mere 1.76%, taking into account the scenario that is currently going through after two consecutive defeats.
At the moment, the main favourite to become champion of the Old Continent is Arsenal, with 21.86% chances ahead of Bayern Munich (16.05%), Manchester City (15.26%), Barcelona (12.34%), Paris Saint-Germain (6.59%), Liverpool (6.24%), Real Madrid (4.99%), Aston Villa (3.20%), Manchester United (1.93%) and Sporting (1.76%).
Internazionale (1.58%), Atlético de Madrid (1.51%), Borussia Dortmund (1.33%), Club Brugge (0.98%), AS Roma (0.68%), Stuttgart (0.61%) and only after FC Porto (0.59%). For now, the only formation that has a zero opportunity (i.e. 0.00%) to win the million-dollar race is Slovan Bratislava.