Inflation is expected to accelerate this year to 3.2%, in a context of fuel price rise driven by the war in the Middle East, the Public Finance Council (CFP) estimates.
© Lusa
24/09/2026
by
Lusa
Nthe Economic and Budgetary Perspectives released today, the CFP foresees an increase in the growth of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of 3.2% in 2026, more 0.3 percentage points than estimated in April, mainly due to the energy component.
As early as 2027, inflation is expected to decrease to 2.6%, “along with the reduction in energy prices on international markets and the dissipation of the basic effect associated with the rise in 2026,” the institution indicated.
The CFP also warned that the food component constitutes a “counterweight” to this path, taking into account that the Eurosystem’s June projections point to a maximum of food inflation in the euro area in the second quarter of 2027, mainly due to energy and fertilisers rising in 2026.
“ In addition to this scenario, the risk of stopping exports of cereals by the Black Sea following the escalation of attacks on commercial ports and ships in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which affects two of the world’s largest wheat exporters, is reflected in the report.