El Niño should aggravate humanitarian needs in Southern Africa

Uthe United Nations has been warned by El Niño of great intensity, beginning this year and extending to the first months of 2027.

In the most recent overview of humanitarian needs in the region, released this week, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reveals data on outbreaks of diseases, food insecurity and malnutrition, displaced and other conditions in this region of Africa, including Angola and Mozambique, warning that the situation should worsen during the rainy season, between October 2026 and March 2027.

OCHA reveals that Angola concentrates more than half of the measles cases and Mozambique leads cholera cases in Southern Africa.

Angola recorded 7.4 thousand cases of measles between January and August, a regional total of 13.8 thousand, ahead of South Africa, with 6.5 thousand.

Next are Madagascar, with 5.7 thousand cases, and Mozambique, with 1.6 thousand.

Mozambique, with 8.2 thousand cases, has the highest cholera value in the Southern African region, where the total has been over 19,000 cases since the beginning of the year.

Angola also faces an active outbreak of cholera, with 6.1 thousand cases between January and September, and OCHA indicates that transmission has remained active in several countries, including the two Lusophones.

Malawi has counted 3,2,000 cases, Zambia, 1,2 thousand cases, Namibia 213, Tanzania 113, Zimbabwe 36 and South Africa two.

“The outbreaks of diseases continued to put pressure on already fragile health systems,” notes the document, which accounts for even more than 4.1 thousand cases of mpox between January and August, most of which in Madagascar, with 3.5 thousand.

Angola and Mozambique are also among the countries with children in acute malnutrition, along with Madagascar, in a region where more than 680,000 children aged between 6 and 59 months suffer from this problem, according to estimates in the report.

Mozambique adds to these problems the crisis of displaced persons, with 662,000 internally displaced persons, especially in the north of the country, a total of 843,000 displaced persons within the countries themselves in Southern Africa.

In the region, the conflict continued to be one of the main drivers of travel, as well as recurrent climate shocks, including droughts, floods and cyclones, according to OCHA.

Mozambique is also among the three countries, alongside Madagascar and Malawi, where food insecurity persisted due to “recurrent climate shocks or localized insecurity,” which “continued to destroy livelihoods and resilience.”.

Madagascar has the largest number of people in serious food insecurity, with 2.1 million, followed by Malawi with 1.9 million, Mozambique with 1.2 million, Zambia with 697 thousand, Tanzania with 507 thousand, Namibia with 408,000, Lesotho with 234 thousand, and Esuatini with 222 thousand.

Throughout the region, the number of people in serious food insecurity fell to over 6.1 million, compared to 13.3 million in July, thanks to seasonal crops and rain improvement.

However, the United Nations warns that the situation should worsen during the rainy season, between October 2026 and March 2027, with the forecast of “under average and extreme heat” to affect agricultural production.

In origin is an El Niño “very strong”, beginning at the end of 2026 and it should extend until the beginning of 2027, bringing rains below normal and temperatures above average throughout the region, as well as a cyclonic activity below normal.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with abnormal warming of the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which alters rainfall and temperature patterns in various regions of the world.

These conditions “may lead to displacements, reduce agricultural production and increase the risk of outbreaks of diseases”, warns OCHA.

Four countries in Southern Africa already have anticipatory actions to tackle the impacts of the phenomenon and three others are ready to activate them.

Madagascar, Malawi and Tanzania are among the countries with preparation plans for El Niño, but “significant funding lacunas threaten their timely implementation,” says OCHA.