The Alternative for Germany (AfD, far right) would win the legislative elections, with 30% of the vote, 10 points ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian allies of the Christian Social Union (CSU), according to a poll released today.
© Sean Gallup/Getty Images
14/09/2026
by
Lusa
A AfD reaches 30% for the first time in the study of GMS, after increasing two percentage points in relation to the survey conducted in mid-July.
On the contrary, the CDU/CSU backs three points, to 20%, a result that, together with the 11% attributed to the Social Democratic Party (SPD), would be insufficient to reissue the current government coalition.
The Greens appear in third place, with 14% of voting intentions, one more point than in July, followed by the party. The Left (Die Linke), with 11%, also another point.
The SPD occupies the fifth position, keeping the 11% recorded in the previous study.
The Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), with 4%, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), with 3%, and the Free Voters (Freie Wähler), with 1%, would be below the 5% barrier needed to obtain parliamentary representation.
In another recent survey conducted by the Insa Institute, 78% of respondents considered that the German Chancellor, Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, is not “adequate” for the job, against 14% who positively assessed his capacity and 8% who did not respond.
The rejection of Merz extends to the CDU and CSU voters themselves, among which 58% have a negative opinion and 36% a positive assessment.
The GMS survey is based on 1,009 interviews conducted online and by telephone between September 9 and 14 and presents a margin of error of three percentage points.
The results arise one week after the AfD won the regional elections of 6 September in Saxony-Anhalt, with 43.8% of the votes and 39 deputies, being three of the absolute majority.
CDU obtained 17%, followed by SPD (9.3%), Os Verdes (8.9%), A Left (8.6%) and BSW (5.3%).
Next Sunday there will be regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, at a time when the AfD leadership has already called for early federal elections to replace Merz before the end of the year.

