Forum: Only if “much goes wrong” economy will grow less than 2%

“ Com the growth of the first semester close to 2.5%, it would be necessary that much went wrong, which is not the central scenario, so that the growth of the whole of the year was far below 2% ", read in the conjuncture note of august published today by the association.

After the second quarter of this year the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.1% to 5.3%, the lowest since the beginning of this series in 2011, with an acceleration of both the active population and employment, the Competitiveness Forum considers that the “less positive aspect” is the low productivity of new jobs created.

“ With employment rising more than GDP [Gross Domestic Product], we are experiencing a drop in average productivity, which probably means that we are creating low productivity jobs,” he says.

Specifically with regard to employment in public administrations, the Forum notes that in the second quarter, “a new record of 768 thousand has been reached, plus one 1% in homologous terms, mainly due to growth in local government”, considering that, in a period of labour shortage, it is “understands that the public sector is competing in this way with the private sector”.

After the Satellite Tourism Account of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) found that the weight of tourism in GDP has been falling slightly, from 16.3% in 2023 to 16.2% in 2024 and to 16.1% in 2025, the association points out that these data “ call into question the idea that GDP has grown with great help from tourism”.

“ Moreover, with relatively modest data from 2026, it is possible that this sector will continue to lose weight in GDP this year,” he adds.

For the coming quarters, the Competitiveness Forum indicates that the latest data “do not transmit coincident information”, but sees that “the third quarter is losing pace”, considering that this is “almost inevitable in the face of very strong second quarter growth”.

“ The fall in investment in the second quarter is somewhat surprising because we are at the end of the RRP [Recovery and Resilience Plan], although that break focuses on the ‘Other Machines’, which suggests that that program is not being able to boost the growth of the economy,” he says.

In this sense, it says “not to expect a great dynamism of investment in the coming quarters”.

Regarding exports, the second quarter data “were very favorable”, but the association points to the “high volatility” that this variable has shown as an argument “to cool some optimism for the rest of the year”.

As for the international conjuncture, he argues that “the optimism about the second half seems to have dissipated, with the increase of hostilities in the Middle East, which seem to put aside the hypothesis of a rapid end to the conflict”.

“ Still, energy prices have remained far from the peaks recorded between March and May, although the quotations for refined products have shown difficulty in decreasing”, notes, anticipating that, in the current context, the European Central Bank (ECB) “should increase its rates already in September.”.

The Forum for Competitiveness is a private non-profit association, founded in February 1994, which acts as a reflection centre (‘think tank’) dedicated to the study of the economy in Portugal.