A new digital tool developed in Catalonia allows you to know in real time the humidity of the forest vegetation of the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands, to predict more accurately the risk of fires during the heat waves.
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15/07/2026
by
Lusa
Lusa
“ When the plants are less than 100% humidity, it is indicative of water stress, and if it falls below 80%, it must be alert, because it means that the vegetation is very dry and can ignite more easily ", highlighted Miquel de Cáceres, researcher at CREAF.
In addition to the dryness of the soil and plants, it is possible to visualize other critical indicators for prevention, such as the potential for propagation of fire by treetops, the probability of ignition of the forest and the humidity of the dead vegetation.
“ We want this tool to be useful to anticipate with greater reliability when and where the living vegetation is in critical situation and can represent fire risk ", said Victor Granda, data scientist of the team.
To develop these daily simulations, the tool integrates meteorological data from the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), the Catalunya Meteorològic Service (SMC), MeteoGalicia and the Andalusian Agroclimatic Information Network (RIA).
This information is cross-referenced with data on soil type, relief and forest structure, from the National Forest Inventory, the Spanish Forest Map and LiDAR maps.
The scientific basis of the platform comes from a study published in the journal New Phytologist and led by CREAF, which for the first time incorporates the moisture of living vegetation in the models of fire risk, overcoming the traditional indices that only assessed the dryness of dead matter.
The investigation shows that trees are better resistant to drought because they have deep roots and close pores to retain water, while sub-bosque shrubs dry much faster, which explains why two neighboring woods with the same climate can present totally different fire risks.
The Portuguese environmentalist association Zero indicated that 2025 was “the fourth worst year in burned area since 2001” in Portugal, with the “double area burned in 2024 and more ignitions than in the previous year”.
The same association highlighted that the rural fires in 2025 raised the burned area to 98% of the expected extension until 2030 by the National Action Program (PNA) designed by the authorities.

