“Disaster”, defeats and pressure on Merz. What's going on in Germany?

ANDin two consecutive regional elections, the far-right Alternative Party for Germany (AfD) won in two German states: Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, consolidating itself as the main political force in parts of East Germany. Chancellor Friedrich Merz recognized the result as a “disaster”. What is going on in Germany anyway?

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, AfD won 38.2% of the votes, followed by SPD, with 35.5%. The CDU obtained only 4.9%, being below the 5% threshold needed to enter the regional parliament, which was the worst result of the CDU in a regional election since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949. The party was for the first time outside the regional parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The German Chancellor acknowledged that the result of the CDU in these regional elections was “a disaster”, but rejected any retreat in the government reform agenda and pushed away the possibility of leaving office.

AfD expects to leave Merz by the end of the year

Although Friedrich Merz said he won't leave the position of chancellor, a leader of the AfD predicted this Monday that the ruler will no longer be in power “at the end of the year”.

“The chancellor’s twilight began,” he said at a Leif-Erik Holm press conference, which won the regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday in northeastern Germany.

Holm added that “the Chancellor will certainly not reach the end of the year.”.

Chancellor invokes “future democratic”

Also this Monday, Friedrich Merz promised to maintain the government coalition with the Social Democrats, stating that Germany’s “democratic future” is at stake after the defeats of conservatives in the regional elections on sunday.

“ We are determined together to meet the historic challenges facing our country. It is nothing less about the democratic future of our country,” he told journalists.

Also the Deputy Spokesperson of the Government of Coalition formed by the CDU, its Bavarian Ally Social-Christian Union (CSU) and the Social-Democratic Party (SPD), Sebastian Hille, assured you intend to remain in power despite the defeats suffered. 

Why did you raise the pressure on Merz?

The CDU, party of the German Chancellor, remained outside the parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and also suffered a heavy defeat in Berlin, although in a different context – lost leadership to the left party Die Linke.

The cost of living, pensions and the situation of the German economy are at the heart of this discontent on the part of the electorate.

These results, which denote great erosion of the political centre, increase pressure on Merz and open a debate on leadership and strategy.

But attention: it is not just about the bad regional results. The German Chancellor has recorded historically low levels of popularity, while facing great challenge to his agenda of economic and social reforms in a context of AfD's growth in surveys. Even within the coalition there are differences, with the SPD expressing reservations about some reforms advocated by conservatives, particularly in terms of pensions and health.

“ We are almost facing the ruins of the great popular parties”, said Karl-Rudolf Korte, a party expert at the University of Duisburg-Essen, in an analysis on the public channel ZDF, also pointing to a “decline of authority” of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, also leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

It should be noted that the regional elections do not alter the majority supporting the Government in the Bundestag (Federal Parliament), nor do they have direct institutional consequences for the Merz Executive. But politically, pressure increases and may exacerbate differences within the Conservative-SPD coalition.