Denmark admits increasing risk of Russian attacks on NATO countries

“ There is a low but increasing risk that Russia will carry out limited military attacks against a NATO country neighbouring Russia.”, said the head of the FE, Thomas Ahrenkiel, at a press conference in Copenhagen.

“ We still consider it unlikely that Russia would see an interest in invading a NATO country, but we cannot exclude it,” he said, quoted by French and Spanish EFE agencies.

In the new assessment of the Russian threat, the FE considers that possible Russian military action against NATO, such as the intensification of hybrid attacks, would aim to divert Europeans from their commitment to Ukraine.

Moscow would need “at least six months” to prepare and form the necessary forces for possible military action against another neighbouring country, as it did against Ukraine in February 2022.

For Ahrenkiel, if “Russia’s growing willingness to take risks has consequences for the security situation in Denmark,” namely hybrid attacks, this does not necessarily mean that Russia will attack the Nordic country.

“We do not foresee a Russian conventional military attack on Denmark,” he said.

Hybrid attacks against NATO countries will be more frequent and will have more serious consequences than before, with the FE (the original name Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste) mentioning destructive cyber attacks or sabotages.

Among the equated scenarios, the FE included limited attacks on Ukraine support infrastructure or a false flag operation using Ukrainian manufacturing drones.

The Danish Security Agency reported today at the same time that it raised the threat level of a destructive cyber attack from medium to high.

“Russia moves a hybrid war against the West and takes more and more risks. For this reason, we raised the level of threat ", indicated in a statement quoted by the EFE.

The Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported today that the United States will have shared information with several European governments about possible drone attacks that Russia would be preparing against Spain, France or Italy.

Unmanned aircraft would be launched from the sea from merchant ships, told the newspaper a source close to the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania on condition that it was not identified.

The three possible targets held elections in 2027 and Russia may want to exploit in their favour the participation of radical political forces, justified analysts.

Russia considers that the supply of arms, intelligence and military advisors to Ukraine turns Western countries into conflict participants and legitimate targets.

According to the Spanish newspaper, the Lithuanian authorities admitted that Russia could use the “Gerbera” drone in the attacks.

“ It is a drone about two meters long, 2.5 meters wide, up to 18 kilos and declared maximum range of 600 kilometres, depending on the payload”, he said.

The “Gerbera” may be transported on merchant ships and fired by catapult from international waters 200 or 300 kilometres from the coast.

They aim to “defuse limited political, economic and material impacts such as temporary closures of ports or airports, fires or damage to exposed equipment,” according to the newspaper.

El Mundo also reported that information on Russian plans has been circulating in the European capitals since the trip of CIA director John Ratcliffe to Moscow on August 25, in which it warned Russia against provocations to NATO.

French President Emmanuel Macron called an emergency meeting of the Defense Council on 16 September, followed by meetings with party leaders following the warning, the newspaper added.