Electricity? Extension of Almaraz may contain prices in Portugal

“ O extension of the operation of the Spanish power plants [until 2030] is beneficial for Portugal,” Lusa Bruno Soares Gonçalves, president of the Institute of Plasmas and Nuclear Fusion, added that studies by several consultants estimated that the closure of the power plants could increase the price of electricity in Spain by “at least 12-15 euros per megawatt hour (MWh)”.

“ As both markets are very integrated and as a general rule prices are similar, this would mean that this increase will reflect on the price of electricity in Portugal”, he adds.

António Vidigal, consultant and specialist in energy and information technologies, shares the same opinion, pointing out that “in principle” is “a favorable decision for Portugal”.

“ Keeping the remaining factors constant, keep for a few more years about 2,000 MW of high availability and low marginal cost nuclear production increases the supply available on the Iberian market and tends to exert downward pressure on wholesale prices, also reducing the need to resort to natural gas production at certain times,” explains EDP’s former director Innovation.

The Spanish decision arises in a European context of the return of nuclear energy to the energy agenda, after years when the energy transition was mainly linked to the growth of renewable sources. France, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Finland, Greece, Poland and Italy are among the countries which have been considering new investments or strengthening the role of nuclear energy.

“ The various countries that are considering nuclear want to electrify society and industry, reduce electricity costs and increase competitiveness and reduce their energy dependence,” says Soares Gonçalves.

“ It is possible that the various countries that are considering nuclear are wrong. It is possible that the European Commission is wrong. It is possible that Sweden, Greece, Finland, Poland, France, the United Kingdom and Italy are wrong,” he said, adding that “if that is the case, it would be useful to understand why so many countries have reached the same conclusion at the same time.”.

For the researcher, this option does not represent a retreat from the energy policies that have been followed since several countries have concluded that the presence of nuclear energy can reduce the overall costs of decarbonisation by ensuring firm production and limiting the need for networks, storage and spare capacity to compensate for the variability of solar and wind production.

“ Renewables play a very positive role in the energy mix, but the electrical system cannot be based only on renewables, even supported by batteries, as they cannot guarantee a supply to the system 24×7”, he says.

This is where the divergence of Portugal's role arises. Bruno Soares Gonçalves argues that the country should study the nuclear option, considering the costs of the entire electrical system and not just the production price of each technology.

“Can Portugal afford to be absent from a strategic industry that several European partners are rebuilding?” he asks.

António Vidigal is more cautious and considers that Portugal is not necessarily at a disadvantage because it has no nuclear power.

“Portugal has achieved, in many periods, wholesale prices of competitive electricity compared to European countries with nuclear production,” he points out, pointing to the combination of solar, wind and hydroelectric energy as a national advantage.

For the specialist, a large conventional nuclear power plant would face particular challenges in a relatively small and highly-growing electricity system. Its competitiveness would therefore have to be demonstrated through an analysis of the Portuguese electrical system.

António Vidigal also stresses the difference between extending existing plants and building new installations. In the case of longer extensions, “in particular up to 60 years of operation”, significant investments are normally needed in the modernisation of security equipment and systems, “which can reach values of around EUR 1 billion per reactor” and will tend to increase the cost of electricity produced.

The specialist also considers it particularly important to follow “closely what happens in Spain”, since “the Spanish decision on the future of its seven reactors is particularly important for Portugal, because the two electrical systems are strongly integrated”.

Portugal must also “enhance cooperation with Spain in matters such as nuclear safety, emergency preparation and monitoring of radioactive waste management”, he argues.

“Whatever happens to be Spain’s decision on the future of its nuclear capacity, these are aspects relevant to Portugal,” he adds.

Bruno Soares Gonçalves argues that Portugal does not have to decide to build a plant already, “but decide if it wants to be able to evaluate this option when it makes sense”.