IMF warns of increasing risks in the world economy

O Today the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of the worsening of the risks to the world economy, despite the resilience shown in recent years, defending the maintenance of prudent macroeconomic policies and strengthening international cooperation.

At the last press conference of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank held in Bangkok, the president of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), Mohammed Aljadaan, and IMF Director General Kristalina Georgieva coincided in the diagnosis of a tough global economy, but subject to pressure from conflicts, high levels of debt, trade tensions and a growing divergence between countries.

“ The world continues to face profound challenges while demonstrating remarkable resilience,” Aljadaan said, stressing that armed conflicts continue to have “a heavy humanitarian cost” and important economic consequences, aggravated by disturbances on strategic trade and maritime routes.

Georgieva considered that the meetings were simultaneously marked by “optimism and concern”, pointing out as positive factors the resilience of the world economy, the dynamism of Asian economies and the potential of artificial intelligence (IA), but alerting to the risks associated with persistent inflation, high levels of debt and climate change.

The AI was one of the most debated topics during the meetings, with Aljadaan considering that technology offers “significant opportunities to increase productivity”, but warned that it can also “enlarge economic disparities”.

For her part, Georgieva pointed out that participants recognized the need to take advantage of the benefits of AI, while creating “barriers” to protect people, companies and countries from the risks associated with rapid technological development.

According to Georgieva, AI value chains integrated countries, energy exporters and less affected by conflicts are gaining additional advantages, while more vulnerable, energy-importing and war-affected economies face greater difficulties to keep up with growth.

Aljadaan stressed that “impacts are particularly severe for low-income countries and fragile states”, defending measures to strengthen debt sustainability and IMF capacity to support these economies.

With regard to policy responses, both advocated the need to preserve price stability and strengthen public finances.

The president of the IMFC stated that “there is no room for complacency” and called for the adoption of credible medium-term budget plans to rebuild security margins and reduce vulnerabilities.

Aljadaan said that “lasting stability and prosperity can only be achieved through greater economic integration, not fragmentation.”.

Georgieva argued, for its part, that central banks should remain “totally focused” on price stability and that governments should act to reduce high levels of indebtedness.

“ The meetings showed that, despite geopolitical fragmentation and successive global shocks, there is still a desire for dialogue and cooperation between countries,” he said.

Despite the uncertainties, both parties argued that sound policies, structural reforms and closer international cooperation remain essential to sustain growth and strengthen the resilience of the world economy.

The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, in performance supported by adaptations in production and transport chains and by an investment cycle associated with artificial intelligence.

As for prices, expectations are that global inflation will stop the fall trajectory, mainly due to the negative shock caused by the war, so the rate should accelerate to 4.7% in 2026, then slowing to 4.1% in 2027, with the expected rise to 2026 “impulsed mainly by higher energy and food prices”.