Italy votes in 2027 with new electoral law

A Italy will hold the next legislative elections in 2027, already under the new electoral law designed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is accused by the opposition to have done it to his own advantage, to perpetuate himself in power.

Passed definitively on Thursday by the House of Representatives, where the right-wing and far-right coalition led by Meloni enjoys a comfortable majority, the law presents as great novelty the introduction of a bonus of parliamentary seats for the coalition, right or left, which reaches the threshold of 42% of the votes in both chambers (Deputy House and Senate).

According to the new rules, a right-wing or left-wing coalition that reaches this “magic number” of 42% of polls will be entitled to 70 deputies and 35 additional senators. If no coalition achieves this power, or if votes for the lower chamber of parliament and the Senate (high chamber) produce different results, a purely proportional system will be used.

The new law was enacted on Friday by Italian President Sergio Mattarella.

According to the parties of the Government – Brothers of Italy, of Giorgia Meloni (nationalist conservative party), Força Italia, of Antonio Tajani (right), and Liga, of Matteo Salvini (extreme right) – the new law aims to guarantee operational majorities in parliament, so that executives are stronger and stable, in a country where, as a rule, governments do not reach the end of the legislature, with an average life expectancy of just over a year.

Given the objective stated by the right to be to provide greater stability to the country’s political system, promoting the formation of solid majorities, the new law, following the Italian tradition of denominating this type of legislation in Latin, was named by the right as “Stabilicum”.

However, on the left, the new legislation is called “Melonellum”, with opposition parties accusing Meloni of, on the eve of legislative elections – which will take place in 2027 at an undefined date – having made an electoral law “to measure”, with an “abnormal” majority prize for those who reach a percentage of votes that is precisely the one that polls currently assign to the right.

“ They're sewing a suit to your measure to perpetuate themselves in power. All that remains to be said is that the majority prize goes to a clear-eyed Prime Minister”, ironic one of the main faces of the opposition, the leader of the Movement 5 Stars (left-wing populist) and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, speaking in plenary during the final explanations of vote on electoral law.

Furthermore, next year's elections will be of dual importance, as they will determine whether Meloni will remain head of government, but will also determine the majority that will elect, in 2029, the successor of Sergio Matarella as President of the Republic, given in Italy that the head of state is appointed by the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, and not directly elected by the people.

Although the parties on the left still hope that the Constitutional Court will fail as well as the “Law of Fraud”, the truth is that Meloni, in addition to having been able to carry forward a reform that raised reservations even among its coalition partners – which led her to threaten with early elections in case of “desertions” in the vote last Thursday – also forces the so-called “wide field”, but traditionally misaligned, from the left to start a battle that can divide it.

Among the novelties imposed by the new law, there is also the obligation of each coalition to indicate a name as a candidate for prime minister, which makes a primary election to the left practically inevitable, which should oppose Elly Schlein, Secretary General of the Democratic Party (PD, Socialist, Central Left) to Giuseppe Conte.

However, several analysts point out that Meloni may feel a “boomerang effect” with the new electoral law in which he has invested so much, since recent polls point to the possibility of the left wing coalition also reaching the threshold of 42% of votes, an even more realistic scenario if the right wing coalition runs without the new phenomenon of the Italian far right, Roberto Vannaci, leader of the newly created National Future Party (FN).

Although Meloni has so far excluded any alliance with Vannacci, a former general who gained notoriety thanks to an anti-woke bestseller and who stands out for her speech against migrants and the LGBTQ+ community and for her admiration for the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, the truth is that the FN now appears in the polls ahead of the other two parties of the government coalition, League and Force Italy, so the leader of the Brothers of Italy may even need their support.

Giorgia Meloni’s mandate – which became, in September, the leader of the government with the greatest longevity in 80 years of Italy’s history – ends in October 2027, but the next elections may be held in April or May, and the exact calendar should be known at the beginning of the year.