Russia loses ground on the front line in October, says ISW

O russian army retreated slightly across the entire front line in Ukraine in October, according to data from the Institute of War Study (ISW), today cited by the French agency AFP.

Russian troops yielded a total of 28 square kilometers (km2) over the past month, continuing the slowdown in progress on the battlefield since the beginning of 2026, according to the US non-governmental organization (NGO) which monitors the conflict.

The main noteworthy movements on the front line in recent months have occurred near the cities of Slovakiansk and Kramatorsk, in the Donetsk region (east), according to the latest analysis of the ISW.

One of Moscow’s main military goals is to conquer the so-called “Century of Fortresses” in the Donbass (east), composed of four cities: Slovaksk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostantynivka.

In September, the analysis of ISW data revealed a 172 km2 advance in favor of Ukraine in the counter-offensive operation designated as “Vivaldi”, in the vicinity of the Kramatorsk and Lyman cities.

This operation, launched in May this year, continued in October with the reconquest of about 60 additional km2.

At the same time, Moscow's troops managed to advance and conquer some 25 km2 south of Kramatorsk, approaching the city, even less than 12 km away.

The Russians and Ukrainians are due to meet this November in the United Arab Emirates to resume negotiations under US mediation.

These discussions, aimed at ending the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, have been paralyzed since February.

On October 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin considered positive the dynamics of his troops on the front line, estimating that they still had just over 10% of the Donbass region.

According to the analysis of ISW data by the AFP news agency, and although the Luhansk region is almost entirely under Russian control, Moscow’s domain over the neighbouring Donetsk region has stagnated by about 80% since January.

In April and May, Ukrainian troops recovered, in total, 400 km2 across the front line.

Since then, the advances of both armies have slowed considerably.

In October, mutual territorial conquests were virtually nullified, both on the border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, but also to the south, in the Zaporijia region.

In 2026, Russia advanced only 11 km2 per month across the whole front, a very small total compared to previous years: 300 km2 per month in 2024 and 400 km2 per month in 2025.

This represents less than 40 hectares a day, equivalent to about 56 football fields.