Xi seeks to gain time in the dispute with USA before meeting Trump

Xi should be welcomed by the US President on September 24, four months after Donald Trump made a state visit to China and at a time when the two largest economies of the world maintain a truce in trade war.

To Ryan Hass, director of John L. Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution Reflection Group and former director for China at the US National Security Council, China is mainly focused on strengthening the country's long-term position in competition with the United States.

“ Beijing is focused on strengthening its long-term position to compete with the United States, not making progress with Trump,” Hass wrote in an analysis published this month.

According to the expert, Chinese leaders continue to view strategic competition as a “during” feature of bilateral relations and seek to buy time to strengthen the country’s ability to resist the pressure they anticipate from the United States as China’s international influence increases.

This position contrasts with the importance Trump attaches to the personal relationship with Xi.

The US President has repeatedly praised the Chinese counterpart and presented the relationship between them as an advantage that will enable him to avoid conflict and achieve economic benefits for the United States.

Jonathan Czin, former CIA analyst for Xi Jinping and director for China on the National Security Council during Joe Biden’s administration, however, considers that this approach is based on “misreading.”.

According to Czin, Trump believes that the accumulated experience with Xi provides him with a personal knowledge of the Chinese leader superior to his own advisors and has directly assumed much of the diplomacy with Beijing.

“This expectation has no observable basis in Xi’s 14 years in power,” wrote the analyst, according to whom the Chinese leader has shown little willingness to let personal relationships condition political decisions.

Xi is “calculist and considered in international politics,” Czin added.

Hass also pointed out that, despite Trump's public praise during his visit to Beijing in May, Xi avoided responding with similar comments about the American President.

The approach between the two leaders also did not eliminate the main sources of competition.

Washington maintains restrictions on Chinese technology sectors and seeks to reduce China's dependence on strategic areas, including rare earths and magnets, while Beijing accelerates efforts to develop advanced semiconductors and other technologies itself.

At the same time, the Trump administration reduced pressure on Beijing in some areas considered sensitive by Chinese leadership, although it maintained competitive measures, including restrictions on imports of Chinese drones and robots and pressures on third countries to limit Chinese product entry into the United States.

For Hass, Beijing interprets this combination of signs as an additional reason to maintain caution: Trump's most conciliatory rhetoric did not alter the Chinese perception that competition with Washington will continue beyond the current administration.

“Trump does not represent a permanent change in the US strategy for China,” said the analyst, according to which there is in Beijing “scepticism that lasting improvements are possible” in the relations between the two powers.

The two powers thus live a situation of “uncomfortable calm”, according to the analyst.

Hass considers it possible that the two leaders prolong the trade truce reached last year and that China undertakes to buy more US products or resolve some of the concerns raised by US companies.

On the other hand, Xi should seek Trump to maintain a position of restraint in matters such as Taiwan, new tariffs and technological restrictions, according to the analyst.