Chief Economist of Standard Bank warned Angola on risk of sliding

Fausio Mussá spoke to the press at the end of the 1st Edition of the Economic Briefing of 2026 of the Standard Bank of Angola, with the theme “Angola, Macroeconomic Stabilization in a High Volatility Environment in Oil Price”, in which he was the prominent speaker.

According to Fáusio Mussá, the world is experiencing moments of some disturbance with the conflict in the Middle East, but there is an expectation of peace for that region and of normalization of the price of oil, which has negatively impacted some of the value chains, such as fertilizers and other products for the industry.

Angola needs to continue to make reforms to attract local and foreign investment to improve the business environment, said Mussá, considering encouraging the results already achieved, with the data pointing to a consistent growth supported by the non-oil sector, due to investments in the energy, agriculture and import substitution sectors in several projects.  

The macroeconomic analyst pointed out that Angola has benefited from the high price of oil, which generates a more favourable economic environment; however, the challenge of fuel subsidies reduces the gains this situation generates for the country.

“ It has been notorious a very prudent fiscal policy and, above all, a great coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy to ensure some macroeconomic stability,” said the chief economist of Standard Bank for Angola, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, also emphasizing the caution of the Angolan government by not making “no adjustment to the assumptions of the State Budget” because “the uncertainty and volatility is too great”.

Angola will hold its sixth general elections in 2027, with Fáusio Mussá stressing that in pre-election years the risks of fiscal slippage increase, and there is a need for greater attention to the control of state expenditure.

“ Because when we approach the elections it may be that there is an intention to complete several projects that have been being developed over the years, but that for some reason the pace did not allow the conclusion ", clarified.

According to the analyst, from the point of view of public finances, Angola has to be able to continue “to generate some cushions, some savings”, which allows managing the impacts of the volatility of the price of oil, so “we need to be careful that the expenditure is concentrated on the priority projects and that the impact of this expenditure on the public debt and the fiscal balance can be smoothed so that there are no pressure peaks in the fiscal area”.  

“ This has been a very interesting year. Angola recently had access to international debt markets, issued four billion dollars in ‘Eurobonds’, but part of this revenue is being used to soften the repayment of future operations,” said Fáusio Mussá, adding that this strategy “can help Angola soften the pressure of debt service, especially in 2028 and 2029.

Regarding inflation, Fáusio Mussá said that the forecast for Angola by the end of the year is 8.6 percent, stressing that two elements influence inflation in the Portuguese-speaking country, one of which has been exchange stability since 2024, allowing economic agents to better manage their import margins, resulting in “a more contained price increase”.

“ The second aspect is that the government has been maintaining a fuel subsidy, while in Mozambique we had an increase in diesel price of 45%, which has an impact on inflation, the increase in diesel in Angola was only 5%, which allows Angola to have an inflation at a digit, which would be the first time in the country,” he said.

The Standard Bank Group operates in 38 countries, of which 18 Africans are the largest private bank operating in Africa.