Macau may face more intense typhoons due to El Niño

O El Niño is characterized by an increase in surface temperatures in the center and east of the equatorial Pacific. It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts approximately nine to twelve months.

Macau Meteorological and Geophysical Services (SMG) warned that when El Niño occurs, “the number of tropical storms entering the South China Sea is generally lower than normal, but its intensity tends to be stronger.”.

This is because “the warm waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean accumulate in the central and eastern regions of the ocean”, so “the places of tropical storm formation move east,” the MGS explained in a statement.

“ As tropical storms have more time to develop over the ocean, continuously absorbing water vapor and ocean thermal energy, their intensity is usually also stronger,” the agency said.

In addition, the SMG said, El Niño should transport “more hot and humid air to the region” in southern China, “resulting in a higher than normal rainfall in the winter of Macao”.

The agency recalled that, according to forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization and the China National Climate Center, El Niño may be the “strongest since there are observational records”.

“ The forecasts point out that its intensity may evolve to the “super-strong” level (overpassing +2.5 °C), and remain until February 2027′′, the MGS said.

In May, the interim deputy director of the weather agency of the neighbouring Hong Kong region had already warned that the phenomenon increases the risk of southern China being hit this year by superstuffons.

Hong Kong Observatory leader Choy Chun-wing predicted that the region would be affected by between four and seven tropical storms in 2026, less than the 14 recorded last year.

However, Choy warned that the El Niño increases the likelihood of tropical storms turning into supertuffs.

Typhoons are recurrent phenomena in Southeast Asia, when the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean favor the formation of cyclones, and southern China is hit every year by dozens of these tropical storms.

At the end of March, the Macao MGS did not exclude the possibility of the region being affected by super-tuffs similar to Ragasa, the most powerful storm recorded on the planet in 2025.

According to a study published in 2024, typhoons in the region are forming closer to the coast than in the past, intensifying faster and staying longer on land as a result of climate change.

According to scientists, climate change is causing extreme weather phenomena that are more frequent and intense worldwide.