Geopolitical risks disturb and EU companies admit that they remain

Aconclusions are contained in a report by the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Commission and show that “geopolitical risks have become the main cause of supply chain disruption”, with the uncertainty and fragmentation of world trade at stake.

The study, which analyses data from the EIB Investment Survey of 2025 and the 2025 Supply Chains Survey, concludes that “the tariffs and costs associated with compliance with regulatory rules have become obstacles to international trade greater than logistical disturbances or the scarcity of production factors.”.

“ The scarcity of production factors remains a concern and may be aggravated by geopolitical tensions. Most companies consider these structural problems, [since] 56% expect high tariffs to remain in the long term, while about half predict persistent difficulties in accessing production factors,” the document adds.

According to the report entitled ‘Restructuring supply chains: EU companies at a time of geopolitical risk’, this ‘reflects the expectation that trade fragmentation will remain a permanent feature of the world economy’.

Nevertheless, according to experts, “EU companies are becoming more resilient to trade disruptions, with the Single European Market playing a stabilising role”, thus Community companies diversifying suppliers and markets and reducing strategic dependencies, from short-term responses to crises to longer-term adaptation strategies.

In this study, almost two thirds of EU companies claim to be prepared to manage geopolitical risks, with particularly high levels of preparation among companies most exposed to the United States and China and among those operating in sectors with higher industrial intensity.

Despite pressures, competitiveness prospects “stay positive”, as “almost 90% of EU companies expect their export performance to remain stable or improve”.

Companies exporting to China and the United States, however, show greater caution in the context of increased geopolitical risks in these markets.

The quality of products and services and the skills of workers are identified as the main factors of competitiveness, while the increase in costs and uncertainty are the main threats, also indicates the study.

Among the recommendations are the improvement of business adaptation and the creation of public measures to reduce exposure to uncertainty and support investment in resilience, such as financial instruments, information and early warning mechanisms on geopolitical risks and greater regulatory clarity.

The study concludes that maintaining European competitiveness in a context of greater fragmentation of world trade will require a combination of adaptation of companies and public support policies, particularly in the areas of skills, innovation and digitisation.

The study comes at a time when the EU seeks to reduce strategic dependencies and strengthen the resilience of its supply chains, in a context marked by increased trade and geopolitical tensions, notably with the United States and China, and recurrent disruptions in world trade.