CIP/ISEG barometer estimates chain GDP growth in the second quarter

“ O Barometer of Economic Conjuncture CIP — Confederação Empresarial de Portugal/ISEG of June 2026 foresees that the Portuguese economy resumes the growth of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, after the stagnation observed at the beginning of the year,” the confederation said.

Despite stressing that only in the next edition will a forecast be realized, the barometer released today’s perspective “a positive overall performance of the Portuguese economy, which will lead to the resumption of GDP chain growth”.

“ The prospects of a globally positive performance of the Portuguese economy are found in the indicators of sectorial activity: the services, construction and public works sectors, retail trade and manufacturing have evolved positively, and only a moderate decrease in wholesale trade has been recorded”, adds the same note.

CIP/ISEG’s analysis further highlights “the growth in April of exports of goods”, which “exceededed the growth — also marked — of imports, opening positive prospects for the recovery of the contribution of net external demand to GDP growth in Portugal”.

“ Industrial production grew in April in homologous terms in all sectors, with the exception of energy production,” he adds.

Cited in the same note, CIP’s director-general, Rafael Alves Rocha, highlighted “the way Portuguese companies reacted and adapted to the conditions they faced in this first semester” in the face of the “defiant context, marked by wars and geopolitical instability, and the progressive transmission of increases in energy cost to the different value chains”, as well as the impact of storms.

However, the person responsible recommended caution: “It is not yet clear how much the increase in the energy price is transmitting along the value chains, nor how quickly that impact will fade,” he said.