The DBRS carried out a downward review of the growth of Portuguese GDP in 2026 to 1.9%, minus two percentage points than in the previous estimate published in March, according to an analysis published today.
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25/06/2026
by
Lusa
Para 2027, the financial rating agency's forecast for the development of national GDP rose a basis from the previous 1.8% to 1.9%.
The unemployment rate remains equal to the previous projection of March, i.e. 5.9% both in 2026 and 2027.
In its analysis of global macroeconomic scenarios, DBRS believes in moderate growth in advanced economies, reflecting expectations of geopolitical disturbances related to energy in a “controlled” way.
“ The growth of advanced economies remains timid but resilient, particularly in Europe, while the US, China and India continue to support global activity,” says the agency’s assessment.
The US is referred to as “exception among major advanced economies, while India and China stand out among emerging markets.”.
DBRS states that global growth, especially in the USA and China, has been fuelled by “the race to technological armaments”, which is generating a strong demand for investments in technology, especially AI, energy infrastructure, aerospace and defence industries.
In Europe, DBRS expects France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom to grow by 0.6% to 0.9% by 2026, with a slight acceleration to 0.7% to 1.2% by 2027.
“The Iberian Peninsula, however, continues to perform better, together with Ireland, Greece, parts of Central and Eastern Europe and some Nordic countries,” says the note.
The analysis also points out that the impact of the blockade of the Ormuz Strait on growth and inflation “has been limited to date”, but, if extended, “risks remain prone to the negative side”.
Despite the negative trend of forecasts in the last three months as a result of the Middle East war and the rise in European Central Bank interest rates, “inflation remains above monetary policy targets in many countries, and unemployment remains at historically moderate or low levels.”.
“ The forecasts also point to moderate growth in most of the economies we have assessed, and the downward adjustment of forecasts has been modest to date. This seems to reflect the expectations that the closure of the Strait of Ormuz will have a limited duration or impact, or at least will be substantially compensated by the budget support to families and businesses affected by the disturbances”, reads the note.