The war in the Middle East, which has led to an increase in energy and fertilizer prices, will result in a decrease in agricultural production in 2026 and 2027, as well as an increase in prices, which will mainly affect the poorest countries.
© Lusa
29/06/2026
by
Lusa
Nthe joint report on agricultural perspectives, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimate that cereal production in low-income countries will decrease 2.3% this year and 1.7% in 2027.
In medium-income countries, the fall will be 1% to 2%, while in the rich it will be less than 1%.
The reason for these differences is that the impact of rising energy prices and, above all, fertilizers is more difficult to bear for the poorest because the accumulated reserves are smaller and the agricultural sector is more sensitive to rising costs.
Prices of major agricultural products such as wheat (4.5% in 2026 and more than 7% in 2027), maize (more than 3% in 2026 and about 7% in 2027), rice (more than 4% in 2026 and 3% in 2027), beef (1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027), pork (almost 2% in 2026 and 4% in 2027) and chicken (3% in 2026 and about 5% in 2027).
The adverse scenario presented by the OECD and FAO to take account of the war is based on a global deceleration and energy prices which will this year be 33% higher than the previous situation, and 10% in 2027.
Fertilizers will be on average 29% more expensive in 2026 and 17% in 2027, and this will result in less use, as well as adjustments in production and trade, and changes in consumption patterns that will be different.
The use of fertilizers will have a cut of 5.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 in low-income countries, 4.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027 in medium-income countries, and about 2% in high-income countries.
This scenario leads to a contraction or stagnation of food consumption in poor countries, in particular animal products, which points to more economical diets.
In medium- and high-income countries, consumption levels will remain practically unchanged, which highlights the role that income levels play in cushioning price crises.
In addition to this analysis of the Middle East crisis, as in previous editions, the OECD and FAO make projections for the next decade and estimate that agricultural sector production will increase by 13.3% and reach a value of USD 4.01 billion (EUR 3.52 billion).
The increase in these nine years will be marked for animal production (15.1%), but also for plant production (12.5%), as well as for fishing and other aquatic foods (11%).
Income per farmer, now on average $3,800 a year, will improve overall 9% in the next decade, although the differences are abysmal among the regions of the world.
In rich countries it will go from $21,100 to $22,155 in 2035, while in poor (sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia) it will progress from 930 dollars to about 1,100 dollars.
Agricultural prices will remain or fall, although the authors of the study underline that this does not rule out possible variability, as demonstrated by historical experience with episodes of volatility.
Despite increased productivity and improved efficiency, sector greenhouse gas emissions will be 6.5% higher in 2035.
As for the international trade in agricultural products, whose weight has grown significantly, from 16% in 2000 to between 22% and 23% in 2019 and which has remained around this level since then, should continue in these parameters in the next decade.
Latin America and the Caribbean (mainly by Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay) will remain the largest region in exports, while major importers will be developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, in particular India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.