Price rise slows: Inflation rate will have been 3.2% in June

A inflation rate will have slowed to 3.2% in june, lower in 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) than observed in the previous month, released the National Institute of Statistics (INE), this Tuesday. 

“ Based on the information already verified, the annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (IPC) was 3.2% in June 2026, a rate lower than 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) observed in the previous month”, it can be read in the report iNS.

On the other hand, the underlying inflation indicator (total index excluding unprocessed food and energy) will have a change of 2.5%, a rate higher than 0.3 p.p. the one from the previous month.  

The change in the index for energy products decreased to 9.1% (13.1% in May), reflecting a reduction in fuel prices, and the index for unprocessed food varied by 5.2% (5.7% in the previous month).

Compared to the previous month, the CPI variation was 0.1% (0.2% in May and 0.1% in June 2025). 

An estimated mean variation in the last 12 months is 2.6% (2.5% in the previous month).

The Portuguese Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will have recorded an annual variation of 3.1% (the same value in May). 

The definitive data for the CPI of June will be published next July 10.

Consumer expectations of the euro area on inflation fall in May

Consumer expectations of the euro area on inflation developments over the coming year declined substantially in May, reveals the research developed by the European Central Bank (ECB).

In May, the average rate of inflation in the last 12 months remained 4%, but inflation expectations for one year decreased to 3.5%, less half a percentage point than in April and lower reading since last February.

In this sense, although the uncertainty about inflation expectations for the next 12 months has decreased, the ECB warned that it remained at a higher level than before the start of the Middle East war.

In the long term, inflation expectations for the next three years remained at 2.9%, and expectations for the next five years again at 2.4%.

Among the interviewees, those in the lower income group continued to perceive and express higher inflation expectations on average than those in higher incomes.

In turn, younger respondents (from 18 to 34 years) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (from 35 to 54 years and from 55 to 70 years).

On the other hand, the ECB consultation shows that consumer nominal income growth expectations for the next 12 months increased to 1% in May, compared to 0.8% in April.

As for nominal expenditure, the perceived growth during the last 12 months increased to 5.4%, compared to 5.3% in April, while the expected growth of nominal expenditure for the next 12 months decreased to 3.8%, compared to 4.3% in April.