China has for the first time older than smaller compared to the active population

A proportion of people aged 65 years or older compared to the Chinese population of active age exceeded, in 2025, for the first time, that of those under 15 years old, according to data from the Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2026.

China ended 2025 with 223.65 million people aged 65 years and older, equivalent to 15.9% of the population, compared with 212.76 million minors aged between zero and 14 years, representing 15.1%, according to the yearbook data, recently published.

The so-called dependency rate of the elderly, which measures the proportion of people aged 65 years or older compared to the population aged 15 to 64 years, reached 23.1%, above 22% corresponding to minors.

Overall, the rate of demographic dependence was 45.1%, resulting from the sum of the two groups in relation to the population considered as active age.

The change occurs after years of rapid aging: the dependence rate of the elderly was 15% in 2016, surpassed for the first time the 20% in 2021, when it reached 20.8%, and reached 22.8% in 2024, only two tenths below that of the minors.

The reversal coincides with a prolonged fall in birth. China recorded 7.92 million births in 2025, a new historical minimum, after recovery to 9.54 million in 2024, and accumulated the fourth consecutive year of population decline.

By the end of 2025, the country had 323.38 million people aged 60 or over, equivalent to 23% of the inhabitants, compared to 22% a year earlier.

The authorities responded to demographic change with measures to encourage births and alleviate the costs associated with raising children, including a national allowance for children under the age of three.

At the same time, elderly support services are expanding and a gradual increase in retirement age has been applied since 2025.

However, the measures adopted so far have failed to reverse the main trends: births remain at historically low levels and authorities predict that by 2035 more than 400 million people will be 60 years old or older, which should increase pressure on the labour market, pension system and elderly care services.